Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
