Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
